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Macroeconomic forecasts

updated: 29. 09. 2016

Macroeconomic forecasts

The IFP, under the Ministry of Finance, is liable for the preparation and updating of short-term and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts for the Slovak economy.   

Medium-term forecasts serve as a basis for compiling a multiple-budget of public finance and for preparing or updating the Convergence Programme of the Slovak Republic. The subject of forecasting includes the following indicators: generation of the GDP in current and fixed prices and the structure of its use; foreign trade and a current account of balance of payments; the inflation rate through the growth of the CPI, growth of manufacturers’ prices and growth of deflators; the labour market – average nominal and real wage in the national economy, rate of employment (according to LFS and statistical reporting) and that of unemployment (according to LFS and registered available number), and other derived indicators. Predictions can be made on the understanding that a procedure planned for public finance consolidation is followed and upon certain expectations as to the development of exchange rates SKK/EUR and SKK/USD and subject to implicit forecasts of the development of exchange rates, i.e. a monetary policy tool. Forecasts for the development of the external environment accord, with the most recently updated forecasts published by the EC and OECD. The chosen content and form of presentation of forecasts for selected indicators of the Slovak economy are identical with the presentation of results achieved by the Macroeconomic Forecasting Committee. Short-term forecasts are prepared in such a structure and frequency as required by the EC and OECD, in particular in Spring and Autumn, and separately for each of the authorities.

The EC and OECD compare their own forecasts with those submitted and, following discussions with the makers of the national forecasts, adjust their own forecasts of the development of individual economies. The outcome is presented in¢ respective EC and OECD reports regarding the anticipated development of particular economies and their groupings.

 Macroeconomic forecasting committee

In order to increase the transparency and objectivity of macroeconomic forecasts, the Ministry of Finance has addressed tenindependent institutions (ING Bank, Tatra banka, SLSP, CSOB, INFOSTAT, VÚB, UniCredit, Volksbank, the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SAV), and the NBS) achieving good results in this area, and set up a Macroeconomic Forecasting Committee. The Committee holds its sessions regularly on a bi-annual basis before preparing the starting points-related information and finalizing the draft state budget itself and, when so required, prior to preparing or updating the Convergence Programme (Stability Programme) of Slovakia. The Committee sits in order to discuss preliminary forecasts delivered by the Ministry of Finance, whose predictions can be subsequently modified respecting the prevailing opinion of the Committee. The outcome of such discussions includes, among other things, an overall evaluation of the character of the said forecasts, i.e. whether a conservative, realistic, or optimistic forecast is concerned. The Finance Ministry’s medium-term macroeconomic forecasts thus accepted are a basis for preparing background information on starting points for a multi-year budget for next three years and for updating the Convergence Programme of Slovakia.

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