Melioris Libor
Matej Kurian
2015-04-10T13:05:25Z
2015-07-10T08:14:57Z
Ministerstvo financií SR
15.00
14820
27870
2790
0
False
False
Výsledky epidemiologického modelu |
Počty nákaz |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
Počet nakazený default |
34.845168600000001 |
24.448267800000004 |
22.170860250000008 |
22.208811900000008 |
23.908305300000006 |
21.112533750000004 |
20.593244100000007 |
16.050771000000005 |
15.054154500000006 |
13.251605400000003 |
13.725846750000002 |
13.218282000000002 |
12.537929250000003 |
14.119248000000002 |
Nákaza full-cover |
8.1988632000000017 |
5.7525336000000005 |
5.216673000000001 |
5.2256028000000008 |
5.6254836000000008 |
4.9676550000000006 |
4.845469200000001 |
3.7766520000000008 |
3.5421540000000009 |
3.1180248000000002 |
3.2296110000000007 |
3.1101840000000003 |
2.9501010000000005 |
3.3221760000000007 |
Scenár 0: Súčasné náklady |
7.7274285659999995 |
5.4217629180000007 |
4.9167143025000017 |
4.9251306390000016 |
5.3020182930000015 |
4.6820148375000006 |
4.5668547210000012 |
3.5594945100000008 |
3.3384801450000015 |
2.9387383740000002 |
2.4141342225000004 |
2.3248625400000007 |
2.2052004975000008 |
2.4833265600000005 |
Scénar A: Náklady x 2,2 |
13.3231527 |
9.347867100000002 |
8.4770936250000037 |
8.4916045500000035 |
9.1414108500000033 |
8.0724393750000019 |
7.8738874500000033 |
6.1370595000000021 |
5.7560002500000031 |
5.066790300000001 |
5.248117875000001 |
5.0540490000000009 |
4.7939141250000015 |
5.3985360000000009 |
Scénar B: Náklady x 3,3 |
19.984729049999999 |
14.021800650000003 |
12.715640437500006 |
12.737406825000004 |
13.712116275000005 |
12.108659062500003 |
11.810831175000004 |
9.2055892500000027 |
8.6340003750000047 |
7.6001854500000015 |
7.8721768125000011 |
7.5810735000000014 |
7.1908711875000026 |
8.0978040000000018 |
Scénar C: Náklady x 4,4 (úplné pokrytie) |
26.646305399999999 |
18.695734200000004 |
16.954187250000007 |
16.983209100000007 |
18.282821700000007 |
16.144878750000004 |
15.747774900000007 |
12.274119000000004 |
11.512000500000006 |
10.133580600000002 |
10.496235750000002 |
10.108098000000002 |
9.5878282500000029 |
10.797072000000002 |
False
False
Scenár |
Hodnota parametra |
Čistá súčasná hodnota |
Pomer prínosov/nákladov |
|
Základný scenár |
173660.08905553713 |
2.9394273683989551 |
QALY |
-0.5 |
9660 |
102012.57071973529 |
2.1392713930448153 |
0.5 |
28980 |
245307.60739133891 |
3.7395833437530936 |
Náklady na liečbu HCV |
-0.5 |
1212.5 |
113706.59286357043 |
2.2698696595536174 |
0.5 |
3637.5 |
233613.58524750377 |
3.608985077244292 |
Diskontná miera |
-0.5 |
1.8499999999999999E-2 |
240723.69871499494 |
3.688390476183506 |
0.5 |
5.5500000000000001E-2 |
124506.42721830905 |
2.3904816806326625 |
Zdieľanie ihiel |
-0.5 |
0.04 |
228421.11000120931 |
3.5509957680301465 |
0.5 |
0.12 |
101235.89000072563 |
2.1305974608180884 |
Infektivita HCV |
-0.5 |
1.4999999999999999E-2 |
37643.280000483763 |
1.4203983072120592 |
0.5 |
0.06 |
302612.4883348248 |
4.3795614472371804 |
Prevalencia HCV |
-0.5 |
0.22500000000000001 |
90637.121667351952 |
2.0122309352170831 |
0.5 |
0.67500000000000004 |
133032.19500084661 |
2.4856970376211036 |
|
|
9
600
600
3
13
7
False
False
Súčasná hodnota prínosov |
Diskoná miera 3,7% |
V eurách |
Rok |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Benefity za jednu odvrátenú nákazu |
5323 |
5429.4600000000009 |
5538.0492000000004 |
5648.8101839999999 |
5761.7863876800002 |
5877.0221154336014 |
5994.5625577422725 |
6114.4538088971167 |
6236.7428850750603 |
6361.4777427765612 |
6488.7072976320924 |
6618.4814435847329 |
6750.8510724564294 |
6885.8680939055575 |
7023.5854557836692 |
7164.05716489934 |
7307.3383081973279 |
7453.485074361276 |
7602.5547758485009 |
7754.6058713654693 |
7909.697988792781 |
8067.8919485686347 |
8229.2497875400077 |
8393.8347832908075 |
8561.711478956624 |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Scenár 0: Súčasné náklady |
12747.104415506272 |
12538.135490661911 |
12332.592285896959 |
12130.418641865861 |
11931.559319868064 |
11735.959986755475 |
11543.567200087349 |
11354.328393528542 |
11168.191862487092 |
10985.106749987304 |
10805.023032774398 |
10627.891507646949 |
10453.663778013395 |
10282.292240668914 |
10113.730072789096 |
9947.9312191368135 |
9784.8503794788357 |
9624.4429962086942 |
9466.6652421724848 |
9311.4740086942475 |
9158.8268937976227 |
9008.6821906206096 |
8860.9988760202741 |
8715.7365993642052 |
8572.8556715057748 |
Scénar A: Náklady x 2,2 |
27711.096555448417 |
27256.816284047633 |
26809.983230210782 |
26370.475308404046 |
25938.172434495787 |
25512.956492946683 |
25094.711304537719 |
24683.322594627265 |
24278.677961928457 |
23880.666847798486 |
23489.180506031298 |
23104.11197314554 |
22725.356039159553 |
22352.809218845465 |
21986.369723454558 |
21625.937432906114 |
21271.41386843225 |
20922.702165671071 |
20579.707048201049 |
20242.334801509234 |
19910.493247386134 |
19584.091718740456 |
19263.041034826681 |
18947.253476878708 |
18636.642764142987 |
Scénar B: Náklady x 3,3 |
41566.644833172628 |
40885.224426071443 |
40214.974845316174 |
39555.712962606071 |
38907.258651743687 |
38269.43473942003 |
37642.066956806579 |
37024.983891940894 |
36418.016942892689 |
35821.000271697732 |
35233.770759046951 |
34656.16795971831 |
34088.034058739329 |
33529.213828268199 |
32979.554585181831 |
32438.906149359176 |
31907.120802648373 |
31384.053248506607 |
30869.56057230158 |
30363.502202263851 |
29865.7398710792 |
29376.137578110687 |
28894.561552240026 |
28420.880215318062 |
27954.964146214483 |
Scénar C: Náklady x 4,4 (úplné pokrytie) |
55422.193110896835 |
54513.632568095265 |
53619.966460421565 |
52740.950616808092 |
51876.344868991575 |
51025.912985893367 |
50189.422609075438 |
49366.64518925453 |
48557.355923856914 |
47761.333695596972 |
46978.361012062596 |
46208.22394629108 |
45450.712078319106 |
44705.61843769093 |
43972.739446909116 |
43251.874865812228 |
42542.827736864499 |
41845.404331342143 |
41159.414096402099 |
40484.669603018468 |
39820.986494772267 |
39168.183437480911 |
38526.082069653363 |
37894.506953757416 |
37273.285528285975 |
9
600
600
3
19
2
False
False
Jednotkové náklady (eur) |
KS / hodín |
Spolu (eur) |
Injekčné striekačky |
0.1 |
140405 |
14040.5 |
Mzdové náklady |
|
|
54328 |
Dobrovoľníci |
2.0230000000000001 |
80 |
161.84 |
Nepriame náklady |
|
|
21011.599999999999 |
|
|
|
Ročné náklady |
|
|
89541.94 |
9
600
600
3
12
10
R13C11:R14C11
False
False
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
Celková populácia uživateľov drog |
9183.4 |
13604.5 |
11293.199999999999 |
7923.5999999999995 |
7185.5 |
7197.8000000000011 |
7748.6 |
6842.5 |
6674.2000000000007 |
5202.0000000000009 |
4879.0000000000009 |
4294.7999999999993 |
4448.5 |
4284 |
4063.5 |
4576 |
Užívatelia mimo Odysea |
6701.4 |
9717.5 |
8156.1999999999989 |
5722.5999999999995 |
5132.5 |
5080.8000000000011 |
5469.6 |
4887.5 |
4711.2000000000007 |
3672.0000000000009 |
3444.0000000000009 |
3101.7999999999993 |
3363.5 |
3264 |
3118.5 |
3536 |
Užívatelia v Odyseu |
2482 |
3887 |
3137 |
2201 |
2053 |
2117 |
2279 |
1955 |
1963 |
1530 |
1435 |
1193 |
1085 |
1020 |
945 |
1040 |
Nakazený užívatelia Odysea stav |
806.64999999999986 |
1263.2749999999999 |
1019.5249999999999 |
715.32499999999993 |
667.22499999999991 |
688.02499999999986 |
740.67499999999995 |
635.37499999999989 |
637.97499999999991 |
497.24999999999994 |
466.37499999999994 |
387.72499999999997 |
352.62499999999994 |
331.49999999999994 |
307.12499999999994 |
337.99999999999994 |
nákazy ak "treatment" |
1.705338765 |
2.6706896775000004 |
2.1553778024999999 |
1.5122685825000002 |
1.4105803725000001 |
1.4545536525 |
1.5658610175000003 |
1.3432462875 |
1.3487429475000003 |
1.051236225 |
0.98596338750000001 |
0.81968942249999999 |
0.74548451250000014 |
0.70082415000000009 |
0.64929296250000001 |
0.71456580000000003 |
nákazy ak "non treatment" |
5.1160162949999997 |
8.0120690325000012 |
6.4661334074999992 |
4.5368057474999999 |
4.2317411175000004 |
4.3636609574999996 |
4.6975830524999997 |
4.0297388625000004 |
4.0462288425000006 |
3.1537086750000003 |
2.9578901625 |
2.4590682674999997 |
2.2364535375000001 |
2.10247245 |
1.9478788874999999 |
2.1436974000000002 |
9
600
600
3
5
False
False